Outcome Prediction After Open Heart Surgery

  • Mustafa Elhamshary Cardiothoracic Surgery Department, Tanta University Hospitals, Tanta
  • Amro Serag Cardiothoracic Surgery Department, Tanta University Hospitals, Tanta
  • Mohab Sabry Cardiothoracic Surgery Department, Tanta University Hospitals, Tanta
  • Wael Elfeky Cardiothoracic Surgery Department, Kafr Elsheikh University Hospitals, Kafr Elsheikh
Keywords: Mortality; Cardiac surgery; Risk scores.



Background: Mortality is the most commonly used outcome measure after cardiac surgery. Various risk scores were developed to predict mortality after cardiac surgery with many differences among these scores. We evaluated the accuracy of Acute Physiology And Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) score, Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score and Cardiac Surgery Score (CASUS) in predicting mortality in our patient population.

Methods: Between October 2015 and December 2017, 103 adult patients who underwent open heart surgery were evaluated. The clinical characteristics, outcomes and risk scores data of the patients were collected. Accuracy of the scores was assessed using receiver operating curve (ROC) and the multivariate logistic regression analysis.

Results: 103 patients were enrolled with mortality rate of 10.3%.  The non-survivors group showed statistically significant lower E.F, higher platelet count, higher bilirubin level and lower Po2 level (P value: 0.015, 0.020, 0.038, 0.006) respectively. Both APACHE II and SOFA scores performed better than CASUS score in predicting mortality in this study. However, APACHE II score (Area Under Curve “AUC”:0.878, sensitivity: 80%, specificity: 78.5%) and the preoperative platelet count independently predicted mortality after cardiac surgery.

Conclusion: Both APACHE II and SOFA scores showed a high power in predicting mortality after cardiac surgery but APACHE II score rises as the best tool for risk stratification in our patient population.

Keywords: Mortality; Cardiac surgery; Risk scores.


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How to Cite
Elhamshary, M., Serag, A., Sabry, M., & Elfeky, W. (2018). Outcome Prediction After Open Heart Surgery. The Egyptian Cardiothoracic Surgeon, 1(1), 1 - 9. https://doi.org/10.35810/ects.v1i1.6
Adult cardiac